4ir: The wave of the future or reaction to the past?

by Marc Wolsky
February 20, 2019

 

Introduction

 

Klaus Schwab, the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum invented the term “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and wrote a book by this name. The fourth industrial revolution is an accelerated use of technologies, such as the internet of things, artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data, cloud computing, digital platform, autonomous cars, 3D printing, genetic engineering and neurotechnology. (Li, Hou & Wu, 2017) Besides being about an exponential wave of new technologies, it is also about intensive changes in the human condition regarding economic, political, cultural and social issues that will bring great upheaval in the 21st century. In all the literature about the fourth industrial revolution, there seems to be consensus that there is a paradigm shift happening because of the convergence of the digital, biological and physical innovations that is definitely occurring, although the ultimate nature of the resulting scenario is unknown. Much has been said, including by Klaus Schwab of the positive potential, but possible peril involved in this radical departure from the world as we know it today.

 

If history is any judge of the future, we will go through job destruction and construction in the fourth industrial revolution like in the other three industrial revolutions. However, what might be different is the exponential explosion of so many technologies that may render life as we know it unrecognizable. Human augmentation may make a new species out of the old, for example, previously the stuff of science fiction. As the nature of the consensus of ideas about this revolution seem science fiction in nature, and that it is the nature of sci-fi in pure form to be the realm of the distant future, the takeaway is that we are moving into a distant type future far The Fourth Industrial Revolution removed from yesterday. Whether we can positively or negatively benefit from this technological revolution is in our own hands. We are told that business and political leaders, and citizens alike should all do their part to ensure we have a beneficial future.

 

Problems with the Fourth Industrial Revolution

 

One negative side of the technology revolution is that automation and AI will displace many jobs, with factories being automated and AI replacing jobs that once seemed irreplaceable, like doctors and stock brokers. Although it is thought that jobs will be replaced that are lost as they have been in other industrial revolutions, the feeling is that this revolution is different, as it is not linear but exponential. Another problem is platforms, or companies like Ali Baba and Amazon that take in large amounts of money tend to concentrate wealth in the hands of capital or the few, and not labor. Yet another problem is that cybertechnology is used militarily by state and non-state actors. Further, that cybersurveillance is creating totalitarian states that compromise both the privacy and integrity of lives.

 

So, there is no utopia here. We are left with the same old struggle between progress and the ills of mankind. So, what happened to all those great things that visionaries like Klaus Schwab think are possible, despite warnings of dire possibilities as well? It would seem as if we are being told that the future holds out the promise of a positive new day regardless of how we might think it turns out if we are to take the videos of the World Economic Forum on the fourth industrial revolution seriously. (World Economic Forum, 2016) Much of what is being said about this technology revolution is very hopeful and full of dewy-eyed enthusiasm. It is almost as if world leaders who are represented heavily at the World Economic Forum are trying to develop a mind-set to ensure the progress of this technological revolution toward a positive resolution. In fact, one writer about it, Julie Friedman Steele (2018) says she feels a futurist mind-set is indispensable in capturing the positive spirit of the technology revolution.

 

However, if history is to be any gauge of how the fourth industrial revolution is going, it could be said that today only 0.5% of the US workforce is employed in industries that did not exist before the 21st century. (Davis, 2016) Previously, 8.2% worked in new industries in the 1980s and 4.4% worked in new industries in the 1990s. (Davis, 2016) This would seem to indicate inequality caused by the technological disruption of the revolution. Further, the jobs created tended to be more for people with higher education levels and specialized study, as opposed to those who did menial, physical jobs.

 

Often, the benefits of these revolutions, including the one being highlighted here are glossed over with the detriments being a necessary evil that doesn’t play into the analysis of whether this is a good circumstance or not. We are simply told that in the end many are lifted out of poverty. It has been said perhaps in this revolution all will be lifted out of poverty eventually, though there are many who will get caught unemployed and poor on the way to this point.

 

Positive Sentiments of the Technology Revolution

 

Some authors don’t even treat the technology revolution as having any major problems in the social, political, cultural and economic arenas. A lengthy article by Morrar, Arman and Mousa (2017) merely extols the innovative virtues of this fourth revolution, without saying anything at all about its negative possibilities. It would seem they are convinced that all is well for the revolution and that only the best things are expected. Could it be that despite all the dire warnings about the potential negative impact of the fourth revolution, that many choose to overall say that everything is going to be ok and that we should all pull together to produce the best. If the World Economic Forum video of the fourth industrial revolution is a gauge, then one can assume that is the case. (World Economic Forum, 2016)

 

Conclusion

 

The treatment of the overall benefit of the fourth revolution indeed does seem very hopeful, as Klaus Schwab says: “The new technology age, if shaped in a responsive and responsible way, could catalyze a new cultural renaissance that will enable us to feel part of something much larger than ourselves – a true global civilization…We can use the Fourth Industrial Revolution to lift humanity into a new collective and moral consciousness based on a shared sense of destiny.” (Davis, 2016, p14) These are truly noble words, but does the lack of caring for those who will be swept aside in the rush for progress a bad thing? The rationale behind moving forward into a better day is a common sentiment of world leaders since the first industrial revolution, where the greater good of humanity at the expense of the few was a good thing. Two hundred years after the first revolution, and we see many people out of the clutches of poverty because of those steam engines, electrically powered factories, and super computers. Perhaps it is more for a world leader to stay practical and stick to platitudes like we are all part of a greater human spirit, that seem to ease the intensity of some falling to the wayside. Many would argue that the world is in a much better place today, even though half the population still lives in poverty. It would seem to assess whether it is worth it for humankind to get ahead as a whole, leaving a minority behind is what people want to do and it would be only too philosophical to look at it any other way. Maybe someday we will have higher values and say no one gets left behind. It should be said that the complex morality we find in America, and especially academia shows us that there can be a higher purpose and spirit to life, and that we would be a fool not to embrace it. The fourth industrial revolution is moving humanity forward, so we should risk that this is a good thing based on higher values that dictate a greater purpose.

 

References

Davis, N. (2016, January 19). What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution? Retrieved from: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Li, G., Hou, Y. & Wu, A. (2017). Fourth industrial revolution: Technological drivers, impacts and coping methods. Chinese Geographical Science, 27(4), 626-637. doi: http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy1.apus.edu/10.1007/s11769-017-0890-x

Morrar, R., Arman, H. & Mousa, S. (2017). The fourth industrial revolution (industry 4.0): A social innovation perspective. Technology Innovation Management Review, 7(11), 12-20. Retrieved from: https://search-proquest-com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/docview/1973310009?accountid=8289

Steele, J. F. (2018, May 25). The Need for a Futurist Mind-Set. Retrieved from: https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Need-for-a-Futurist-Mind_Set-2119786#ref1255213 

World Economic Forum. (2016, July 18). What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution? [You Tube] Retrieved from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpW9JcWxKq0